Power Ranking and Predictions

Discussion in 'Mosteiro da Batalha (US39)' started by arthurweseley, Apr 26, 2019.

  1. arthurweseley

    arthurweseley Spearman

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    Power rankings and rationale
    1. WIN/Dream Team: Tribe with the highest bash despite having low amount of members
    This tribe is made up of the usual winners of previous US world. Despite taking number 3 on the point leaderboard, it still has the overall best power in the world. Also has a tribe level of 44. Amount of top 50: 7
    2. Ghosts of Democracy/GOD: Tribe with the highest points per person. Unsure about the origins here, but this tribe has a very secure spread across NW with respectable bash. Amount of top 50: 13
    3. Old Friends Again/OFA: Recent winner of a world and tribe with the highest amount of members. Despite it being an MRT, MRTs can be very effective if used correctly. Amount of top 50: 10
    4. Utterly Senseless Associates/USA: Not as strong as the top3 on the list, but still a valid contender. Amount of top 50: 6
    4. Red Ax Regalia/RAR: Seems to be on par with USA in terms of strength. Amount of top 50: 6
    Percentage of Winning
    1. GOD/Ghosts of Democracy: 42.5ish % Although the second on the power rankings, WIN has had terrible diplomacy, with the rest of the tribe seeing it as the number 1 threat and forming a coalition against them. In addition, GOD seems to have great players capable of winning the world.
    1. OFA: 42.5%ish as well. OFA certainly wins by the numbers. Although the members in OFA is less elite compared to GOD or WIN, they are still better than average. Therefore, the world seems mostly going to be a toss up between OFA and GOD, probably depends on there diplomacy. If either tribe makes the same mistake as WIN, the victory will go to the other.
    2. Dream Team (WIN): 10%ish. WIN, even though having the best member composition has blundered in terms of diplomacy, having most of the other top tribes banding up against them. Although having definitely elite members, Win has already shown signs of faltering, losing villages and a continually rising DBP to OBP ratio, signaling that its defense has been greatly strained. WIN has made itself diplomatically unreachable as well as closing all recruitment, no doubt greatly lowering their chances of victory. Since it's a domination world, other tribes have probably adopted a "kill them first or be killed" mindset. WIN has little chance of victory indeed. The only real chance WIN has to win is to go beyond the 35 member limit. It's really too late for them, as they have already expressed their sentiment on honoring the 35 player competition challenge (which is a respectable endeavor). Their lack of diplomacy and communication with other tribes is unfortunately their grave. With them being the number 1 threat, the rest of the server will band and fight against them.
    3. RAR and USA: 2.5% each.. Both of these tribes have some great members but I doubt they can win on their own. Perhaps a merge will happen, either to each other or to one of the top 3 tribes.. But then, they will no longer be RAR or USA eh..
    4. Rest of the tribes: less than 1%.. barring a great upset, I don't see much chance of those tribes winning on their own. At most, it would be a merge to win. Personally think that the better players in the tribes might very well join the tribes higher on the power ranking. These tribes definitely have great players, but the overall quality and quantity is still a bit lacking to compare with the previous three tribes. They have pretty much no chance of competition, with the only possibility being disbanding and merging into one of the stronger tribes.
    Predictions
    WIN gets eventually steamrolled, with some members going on to the new world or merging into other tribes (OFA, GOD, etc). OFA and GOD clash, with the tribe with the best diplomacy winning. The rest of the tribes will probably pick a side between OFA and GOD with the better players eventually merging in.The winner will kill the rest of the tribes.

    This world is definitely still very uncertain. I think the winner will be a coin flip between GOD and OFA. I personally respect the smaller GOD tribe though. They seem to be great contenders despite having little members, and one of the few small tribes that TW2 needs to make it more competitive, rather than a near 100 member MRT (sure its a great tactic.. but is winning really fun without fighting anyone?)

    Overall.. diplomacy is of the essence in this world and will be the determiner of who wins this world
     
  2. EIJEFE

    EIJEFE Nobleman

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    So why exactly is WIN targeted by everyone? Their players kinda suck.. did they insult everyone or something? And I could see a merge between USA and WIN to be a top contender too
     
  3. arthurweseley

    arthurweseley Spearman

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    I beg to differ on that statement. THe players in WIN are top tier and are the usual winners of US servers. It’s only logical to wipe them all first
    If USA and WIN merge they will lose the victory bonus and even then they will only be more targetted. I can’t see a good chance of WIN winning.
     
  4. EIJEFE

    EIJEFE Nobleman

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    maybe two or three are really good, but its mostly decent players and few huge coiners. God has better players all around
    what they could do is merge the best players of WIN and USA together, and throw the decent players in USA and there you go.. keep the competition and become a contender.

    PS: I have no idea what is going on diplomatically so im talking out of my ass
     
  5. arthurweseley

    arthurweseley Spearman

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    WIN started out the strongest of the tribes, taking almost all the top 10. The problem doesn’t lie in their players but lie in their self-confidence. They were too self confident and made enemies of the entire world. It doesn’t matter how many good players they pack in. They went in too confident and got smacked.
     
  6. WANTED

    WANTED Spearman

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    All win is, is a sugardady and a bunch of noobs
     
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  7. xXCarnageXx

    xXCarnageXx Guest

    Bash speaks differently
     
  8. xXCarnageXx

    xXCarnageXx Guest

    Also If you wanna talk noobs, OFA keeps throwing 100-200 axes at me like its gonna do something. Numbers don't mean anything if the player's IQ is below 10.
     
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  9. DR LURDAN

    DR LURDAN Spearman

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    @arthurweseley Love it when someone else does these, very interesting analysis looking forward to more.
     
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  10. WANTED

    WANTED Spearman

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    so having high bash makes a player good then :rolleyes:

    Anyone can click attack.
     
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  11. arthurweseley

    arthurweseley Spearman

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    Welp
    with empo quitting, WIN is pretty much as good as dead.. Empo was.. after all the guy coining up WIN and the guy responsible for one sixth of its bash. New power ranking
    1. GOD
    2. OFA
    3. WIN and RAR
    Time for the GOD vs OFA showdown.. OFA has to fight on two fronts though.. both GOD and RAR
     
  12. DR LURDAN

    DR LURDAN Spearman

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    100 members vs 29, totally balanced fight :'(
     
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  13. Sledge

    Sledge Spearman

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    Normally WANTED i would agree with you but this isn't totally the case in my opinion.

    It is a bit of an unfair analysis. You can call EMPO a crowner because we have proof of that. Pretty sure he crowned tribe levels but we don't know and we don't know if he spent money on other players. So despite strongly suspecting it we can't really call him a 'sugardaddy'. However, if he is and he is looking for another good cause, I have a student debt in desperate need of a sugardaddy :p #CallMe

    The other players you can't generalise as Noobs that's not correct, and lets be truthful we don't actually think that. There has been some good play but also some noobish mistakes. We are not totally innocent of that ourselves on occasions.

    Overall I think they underestimated their opposition and built accordingly. Yes OT is important. I have yet to meet a winning tribe that concentrated on building defence! So yes, Offence is the best Defence and yes crowning accelerates the growth and gives an advantage. It also made players in other tribes just restart without even scouting or trying to compete. However, if you have another premade tribe who is equally aggressive, organised, and has its own crowners they will not be intimidated. It really then will come down to skill/expertise, knowledge, experience and generally luck. It will also come down to defence and WIN just did not have enough at the start of this world. Defence is the silent giant, if it is overlooked and ignored it can greatly contribute to the downfall of even the best tribe.

    upload_2019-5-5_16-21-16.png WIN's initial need to grab as much OBP as possible, to underestimate its opponents, to judge its own tribes power and skill based purely on its OBP, to assume it made them infallible, may have worked on other worlds but was not going to work on this one. Judging the merit of a player by his OBP and the number of villages owned made them weak at home. At the beginning of a world it does not matter if a player has 6 villages and a huge nuke. If he aint got the defence to back it up when needed then he is going to lose them. If players feel that they must have high OBP to retain their spot in the team (as was the case in WIN) they will concentrate on building OT only and then they cannot assist when the attacks come in. It left players i am sure scrambling to get defence and it cost EMPO a lot of money. It is not rocket science, you need a balanced team. You can't go out on the pitch with just the Center, the Quarterback and the Wide Receivers.

    I am sure there is more to it than this. We don't know what is going on in other tribes so it is an assumption based upon what we experienced. The root of the cause is not usually down to just one thing.
    WIN are going to need to work hard and have a lot of luck to come back from this.
     

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    Last edited: May 5, 2019
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  14. Hyde

    Hyde Spearman

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    Seems like someone had a lot of time on her hands :rolleyes: Sledge being curious is good, but the more you see the less you know for certain. There are few people in this world that speak with absolute certainty on everything they say, we are all human after all and make mistakes.

    There is no real way to rank a team, sure there is a few things a team needs to perform, but I am not going to write a wall of text as I no longer care (which is possible a lie).

    Hasn't stopped you before, no reason it should now ;)
     
  15. SavageNeo

    SavageNeo Spearman

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    Interesting rankings :)
     
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  16. THEHUNTER3000

    THEHUNTER3000 Axeman

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    I'm guessing you guys forgot about Pro X gamers lol we just took Seventh Place.
     
  17. Sledge

    Sledge Spearman

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    Nothing is ever certain in this game but one thing is for sure - WIN will not survive unless another tribe bails them out or they manage to persuade the other tribes to leave them alone.
    Only way to do that is to create another enemy for the world to focus on which i am sure will either be GOD or OFA
    Letting WIN grow again and not finishing them off will be the biggest mistake any tribe makes
     
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  18. THEHUNTER3000

    THEHUNTER3000 Axeman

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    I might just be a little stoned and I shouldn't open my mouth but it seems a little weird nobody is noticing my alliance just slowly creeping past everybody lol
     
  19. THEHUNTER3000

    THEHUNTER3000 Axeman

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    Plus am I the only one that noticed that win
    went over 35 members one time so they no longer qualify for the event they're trying to do lol?
     
  20. SavageNeo

    SavageNeo Spearman

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    GOD propaganda wheel spinning strong #cheers
     
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