No, this isn't anything new. You're just in a rough spot that we all go though where luck (not in-game calculated luck) just hates you.
The lowest a noble will hit for, without Vasco's Scepter, is 20 and the highest is 35. So unless you hit 25+ on each noble hit, plus one noble getting at least 26 to get the loyalty below 0, you're going to need to send 5 nobles to conquer the village.